The Japanese government and big utilities were pushing to restart nuclear reactors for fear of power shortages in the summer months. Specifically in the Kansai area (Osaka, Kyoto, Kobe, and Nara, served by KEPCO), previous power generation by nuclear power was close to 50%. Therefore, before summer, a severe power shortage was feared. Several local governors and mayors, especially the Osaka mayor, opposed restarting the nuclear reactors, because safety had not been verified. But at the last moment, they withdrew their opposition because there was no assurance that enough power for the summer could be secured.

In the US, Labor Day signifies the end of summer, but in Japan it is still very hot, well over 90 degrees during the day. However, no power shortage has materialized. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), power use during July was the lowest since January 2005, as a result of lower temperatures and power saving. An average household in Japan used about 342 kWh in July, 7.3% less than in July 2011. There are many factors to consider, such as temperature and humidity, to get that number. One thing I can say about summer in Japan is that it is hot and sticky and I avoid going there then. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has a good link to how much power an average US household consumes monthly. Consumption varies among states. In 2010, the least consumption was in Maine (521 kWh) and the most was in Alabama (1,384 kWh).

Granted that houses are much smaller in Japan, 342 kWh is very little. Believe me that during a typical summer night, the temperature does not drop below the high 70s and the humidity is unbearable. You cannot sleep without AC. So I think this indicates very aggressive power saving by average citizens.

In the Kansai area, two restarted nuclear reactors produce a total of 2,360 MW. During the month of August, they had a 3,470 MW cushion between demand and supply. In early July when reactors had not been restarted, the closest between demand and supply was 2,120 MW. The rest of the utilities territories (9 out of 10) reported the following summertime (the entire summer) power usage decline, compared with the summer of 2010.

Source: TBS TV

Many people in the Kansai region, as well as others, think the restarting of the nuclear reactors was not necessary. There was not a single day when demand was so close to supply to necessitate rolling blackouts. Almost 50% of power generation capacity was lost, yet there was not a single blackout during the months when the highest power consumption was expected. This energized the anti-nuke movement.

In spite of that, the government and utilities companies are planning to restart the remaining 48 nuclear reactors. The sad reality is that they lack a convincing argument to show that the nuclear reactors are safe, because some are suspected to be on fault lines. The government surveyed public opinion about what the energy mix in the year 2030 should be. It asked people to select which percentage nuclear power should take, 0%, 15%, or 20–25%. The overwhelming majority selected the 0% option, and the government is now leaning that way. But they have not yet shown how it can be accomplished or which energy sources can take over from nuclear power.

This is still a fire on the other side of the ocean for the US, but we should consider our energy mix while we still have time. It is very hard to do so when you do not have time, like Japan.

In scanning a massive number of tweets, I came across one from Dominion Virginia Power (DVP) regarding its energy plan. That alone did not attract my attention enough to dive into their press release. But DVP has a nuclear power plant in the area where the recent magnitude 5.8 earthquake hit and a third reactor in preparation, and I was interested in what they had to say about that. I was also interested how the emergency there was handled in comparison with that at the Fukushima nuclear plant.

According to Wikipedia, DVP's North Anna nuclear plant has a generation capacity of 1.8 GW. Two reactors currently in operation were built in 1978 and 1980, so the plant has been in operation for more than 30 years. They are only 60 miles from Richmond and 90 miles from Washington, D.C. My impression is that the reactors are pretty close to large cities. What happens if a nuclear emergency takes place so near major cities?

When the Fukushima plant first began to emit radiation, the Japanese government initially set a 5-km-radius evacuation zone, then gradually increased it to 10 km and then to 20 km. In the US, two zones are predefined for nuclear plant emergencies. The first has a 16 km (10 mile) radius (direct contamination) and the second has an 80 km (50 mile) radius (indirect contamination). At the time of the Fukushima accident, the US embassy in Tokyo warned all the US citizens in the Fukushima region to evacuate outside the 80 km (50 mile) radius, in accordance with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s guideline. The embassy was simply doing what was in the manual for nuclear disasters.

This confused many Japanese people in the region because the Japanese government set a very narrow zone for evacuation and gradually increased it. Some thought the severity of the situation was much worse than what their own government said. But many thought the Americans were exaggerating the incident. That might be half true. Many non-Japanese in Tokyo, which is 135 miles away from the plant, started to flee Japan. We now know that that was not necessary.

But the US government probably knew what was going on, because the US force in Japan probably knew where and how radiation was flowing in the region. It shared that information with the Japanese government. The Japanese government independently had information about where radiation was flowing but did not share that information with people in Fukushima. The radiation was flowing northwest from the plant, beyond 20 km. Many evacuees incidentally followed the path along the flow of radiation. Many of these people, including children, were certainly exposed to radiation. After six months, we know that the Japanese government did not have a solid plan for evacuation in case of a nuclear disaster.

What was the cause of this disaster? Fukushima’s problem was the loss of power to cool reactors and spent fuel pools. The reactors shut down automatically and did not break because of earthquakes or the tsunami. The power grid was knocked out, and emergency power was not available because the basement where the diesel generators were was flooded. North Anna had five available backup diesel generators with enough fuel for 30 days. Grid power was restored on the same day, and backup power was working well, according to CNN.

From this we know that cooling is essential to maintain the safe operation of nuclear reactors. Fukushima’s problem would not have escalated as it did if emergency backup power had been operational. It is ironic that power generators need other sources of power to cool themselves. Emergency backup power is currently limited to diesel generators. Although disasters at data centers are not life threatening like nuclear accidents, they can make a huge impact on people’s lives and on society. I wonder if we will get some alternative ways of securing power beyond diesel generators anytime soon.

Japan still cannot decide what to do with its energy policy. Public sentiment was to replace nuclear power with power from renewable energy. But it will take many decades before renewable energies can replace all the nuclear power plants. As for DVP, they plan to go ahead and get approval for North Anna 3 (the third reactor) in 2013. I think we need to keep nuclear plants and gradually replace them with other sources of energy, even though it may take 10 to 30 years.

It is almost six months since a major earthquake shattered Japan on March 11. The devastation itself was beyond belief, but the aftermath has been as bad as the destruction. The damaged nuclear reactors have not been stabilized, and tens of thousands of people evacuated from the disaster area because of the fear of radiation have no idea if and when they can go back home.

Indirect impacts are being felt elsewhere, including Tokyo, which has depended on power produced by the nuclear reactors. TEPCO, Japan’s biggest utility company, serves the Tokyo metropolitan and surrounding areas but runs nuclear reactors far outside its territory. The government formerly pushed nuclear power to solve the energy problem—Japan imports close to 100% of all its required energy, and nuclear power was seen as the means to maintaining energy independence. When nuclear power plants were planned, people in Tokyo did not want them in their neighborhood. So the government offered villages that were suffering from little or no business economic stimulus funds in exchange for sites for nukes. That is why many nuclear plants were built in remote villages.

The government declared a power emergency at the beginning of summer and imposed 15% mandatory power conservation on big businesses and factories. This is similar to Emergency Alerts 1 and 2, currently enforced in Texas by ERCOT, as reported here.

There were some exceptions, such as hospitals, trains, and data centers, but everyone, including average consumers at home, was encouraged (but not ordered) to conserve power. The total power consumption meter displaying real-time data for the TEPCO territory was put where as many people as possible could see it: in train stations, on buildings (these were giant displays), on websites, on Twitter, and elsewhere. Except for a few days, demand fell visibly, and no rolling blackouts took place. TEPCO is canceling the power emergency as of September 9, two weeks ahead of the planned date.

There are a few reasons for the successful completion of the power emergency. I stayed most of July in Japan and can comment on them firsthand.

1. The curtailment of power use by large businesses and factories worked. Those entities shifted their business hours and/or worked on weekends, with Thursdays and Fridays off.

2. Average people voluntarily tried their best to conserve power.

3. The media encouraged people to conserve power and showed many innovative ways to get cool other than by turning on the air conditioning.

Before immigrating to the US, I was born and brought up in Japan, so I can see why this worked fine. In short, many Japanese have a tendency to endure hardships without complaining.

Factory workers needed to change their shifts so that they could work during the night, when power demand was low. Office workers needed to come to work one or two hours earlier to save power. Many had a hard time adjusting their lives and arranging day care for their kids and elderly relatives. Restaurants had to adjust their business hours to accommodate the change as well. Office workers needed to work when it was 86°F with 70% humidity. A packed train at rush hour without air conditioning is intolerable; I cannot recommend it, even just as an experience. Many people, several times more than in an average year, were sent to hospital with heat exhaustion because air conditioning was off to save power.

Now that their summer with power conservation is over, winter will be another test for Japan. Nuclear reactors are run for 13 months and stopped for checkups for three months, by Japanese law. Many reactors, once stopped for checkup, will not be restarted, because the government has no firm policy to restart them. Cold weather may not demand as much power as hot, but there will be less power. We will soon see what happens.

It has been a week since I arrived in power-shortage Tokyo.

Before I flew, I checked the news and information from friends here. I was expecting a real hell, but it is not too bad, relatively speaking.

Lighting: Lighting is dimmed in train stations, trains, some public places, and offices. In attending several meetings, I noticed darker office areas. The situation is quite different in the Nagoya and Osaka areas.

AC: Train stations are pretty hot and humid, and very little AC is on. Trains are not too bad, and some are well air-conditioned (I did not want to get off). Offices are pretty bad. Their ACs are set to 86°F or higher. This is pretty uncomfortable, and those who wear a jacket take it off when the meeting starts. This is not so in the Nagoya and the Osaka areas.

Escalators and elevators: The last time I was in Tokyo was May. At the time, some elevators were in operation, but many escalators were halted. This time most escalators are in operation.

Attire: Japan is a country of formal attire. Before this power shortage, I would see people in dark suits and neckties in the heat of summer. But no jacket and tie is the way to go. I feel at home.

Power consumption forecast: The forecast is given everywhere, including TV, newspapers, Twitter, and public digital displays. In spite of 94°F and higher temperatures, power consumption is well below available capacity. Businesses and people are really working hard at reducing power consumption. Large factories take Thursdays and Fridays off and operate during the weekend to exploit the lower consumption then.

Victims: Because people tend to trust and obey the government, some people try to contribute to power conservation by not turning on their AC. More and more people are being sent to the hospital with heat stroke.

Nuke controversy: The Japanese government is not clear in their policy on nuclear power. They abruptly applied pressure to stop a nuclear reactor (by law the Japanese government does not have the authority to order a shutdown) because of fear of an earthquake in its region. Several nuclear reactors were supposed to be restarted after routine checkups (every 13 months by law). Right after the government declared one of the nuclear reactors safe, the prime minister demanded more tests for safety. This confused and angered state and local governments. Moreover, the utility that wanted to restart the reactor tried to manipulate the outcome of a public hearing by sending pro-nuke emails purporting to come from average citizens with no connection to the utility. This did not help people living close to the reactor. The government is to issue its position on the operation of nukes, but if it does not convince the citizens of Japan, it is likely that all the nukes will be stopped by next spring. That will really bring on a power shortage crisis.