Tokyo and surrounding regions are served by the now infamous TEPCO. TEPCO managed to provide enough power during the summer, thanks to savings exercised at businesses of all sizes, factories, government organizations, train systems, offices, and residences. With the savings, TEPCO even had spare power for its northern neighbor, the Tohoku Electric Power Co., which nearly went into blackout nine times this summer. Remember that the Tohoku region is the one that suffered from the major quake and tsunami in March. The power infrastructure included, the region has not recovered at all. After the summer, power demands dropped low enough to secure enough supply, but winter is rapidly approaching and, with it, heavy power use for heating.

I read a blog post (in Japanese) by Naoki Inose, lieutenant governor of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, regarding the necessity of another electric power company to reinforce TEPCO. 

TEPCO estimates its power supply in December will be roughly 55 million kW, or 55,000 MW, with power demand at 51.5 million kW, or 51,500 MW. However, back in 2007, the demand in winter exceeded 55,000 MW, and it is not a safe bet. On top of that, the Tohoku power territory needs help from TEPCO. As I mentioned before, Japan's power grid is split into two parts. (The US power grid is split into three parts.) The eastern part of Japan (Tohoku and TEPCO) has 50-cycle AC power, while the western part has 60-cycle AC power. Although there are a few power conversion stations, they don’t have the capacity to send extra power from the west to the east. And the west is also expecting a power shortage because their nuclear power plants will be halted. So TEPCO is the only one that can save the Tohoku power company. TEPCO also feels they need to help it.

The Tokyo metropolitan and local governments of the surrounding eight regions are contemplating a second TEPCO to secure enough power for their areas, according to Inose. An irony is that the world-famous Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant is owned and operated by TEPCO to generate power for its own territory, but geographically it is in the Tohoku power company’s territory. People in the Tohoku power company territory are still suffering from the accident at a nuclear power plant that does not generate power for their use. This is like PG&E having a nuclear power plant in Washington or Arizona, and an accident happened there.

TEPCO is losing its generation capacity, as some of its nuclear reactors (2,500 MW) will be halted by spring for checkups. Since TEPCO lost the Fukushima nuclear reactors, it will probably lose up to 8,000 MW altogether. The Tohoku power company is expected to lack around 700 MW. Under these conditions, TEPCO will not be able to support Tohoku.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government is constructing a natural gas thermal power plant (1,000 MW), but it will not be enough. Those nine local governments got together and discussed how to cope with the lack of power. Renewable energies are desirable, but they cannot generate enough renewable energies at this time. The best choice at this point is natural gas. There are several problems that must be resolved at the national level. For example, in the current system, private power generators will be charged for the use of transmission lines (owned by TEPCO) in selling power to TEPCO. Also, if gas thermal plants are the inevitable choice, how will the national government secure enough natural gas for generation and stabilize its price?

Also, TEPCO, out of desperation, restarted old thermal power plants, which are 35 to 40 years old and very inefficient, to secure enough power. They generate up to 15,000 MW but may break anytime. Also, they tend to emit more harmful substances into the air than do modern facilities. TEPCO is required to pay an astronomical amount of money to compensate for the nuclear accident and does not have a fund to upgrade the old thermal plants. Someone has to pay for more power plants.

Some of the nine local governments complained about the lack of support from the national government. Inose concluded that the national government probably could not help the situation and that they needed to take the matter into their own hands. They are now talking about creating a fund to construct and renew power plants. Inose also talked about a smaller but easily controllable generation facility, like one at a hotel or a business office.

It has been eight months since the quake, but recovery is slow in coming, if at all. Budgetary talks to help the stricken areas are not progressing rapidly. The Japanese people once were very proud of their highly reliable infrastructure, including the power grid. The utility companies told me that their infrastructure was superb and they did not need smart grid. Former Prime Minister Hatoyama promised the world that Japan would cut CO₂ emissions by 25%. But with more natural gas–based thermal plants, how will Japan keep its promise? People who supported Hatoyama’s plan now do not say much. When confronted with reality, people need to make a tough choice between controlling GHG emissions and sustaining society and businesses. What about the US? Are we ready to make a tough choice?