Good or bad, Japan is mysterious. If I had not been not born and brought up in Japan, I am sure I would think so. You cannot tell what’s really happening with its stance on nuclear energy. Germany, Switzerland, and Italy made it very clear that they would get out of nukes. Japan? You would think it had decided to do so, right? I am not so sure. Read on.

In less than two months, the anniversary of the dreadful 3/11 earthquake and tsunami will arrive. There is less and less news coverage of this tragedy in the US media, and even in Japan. Unless you follow the Japanese media closely, including TV, radio, and newspapers, you might think Japan was already completely through with nukes.

The truth is that it is not certain. With hundreds of thousands of people still evacuated from the radiation-infected areas, the Japanese government seems to be indecisive about what its policy should be on nuclear energy, and all other energy for that matter. I monitor the news and opinions of people and can tell you that pro-nuke and anti-nuke forces are not having a fruitful discussion. It is probably safe to say that if there were other sources of energy available to replace nukes right away, the overwhelming majority of people would halt all 54 nukes and use the other sources. Almost all the nuclear reactors, by the way, are currently halted after their regularly scheduled checkups, because of resistance from the people living around them and indecision by local and national governments.

Pro-nuke forces emphasize that only nuclear plants can afford to generate adequate clean power, but they do not want to talk about a future energy policy. Anti-nuke forces demand that nukes be stopped right away because, in their opinion, Japan has enough power without them. They claim that if the same amount of money spent on nukes were used for renewable energies, renewable energies would very soon be able to take over for nuclear energy. Some anti-nuke people are rational enough to say that nukes should be phased out over time and not shut down right away, but their voices seem to be in the minority. So the discussion does not make sense because two extreme opinions have no common ground, which would be the decision on a national energy policy based on cold facts with hard data.

The national government is also to blame. It does not seem to have made a clear decision about what to do with nukes, or for that matter, the entire energy policy. Former Prime Minister Kan was clear in banning nukes and encouraging solar energy to replace them. But as most experts point out, solar energy alone could not replace nukes now, and maybe not even in the future. Kan was criticized for using get-out-of-nukes as his platform to cling to his seat. The Ministry of Economics, Trade, and Industry (METI) was worried about the power shortage resulting from halting nuclear plants, which definitely affects business and manufacturing in Japan. So with Kan’s blessing, Mr. Kaieda, Minister of METI, went to see a governor whose territory had nukes to get his OK to restart them. After just one day, Kan, in spite of his earlier OK, overturned Kaieda’s request to restart the nukes. Instead, without consulting with experts, Kan decided to bring in a new stress test, similar to the one used in Europe, as one of the conditions for restarting nukes.

The details of the stress test have not been revealed, and the Japanese people, especially those living around nukes, do not know how the results would be used to ensure nuke safety. Current Prime Minister Noda seems to be more pro-nukes, even though he does not say so in public. He seems to be of the opinion that if passing the stress test shows the nukes are safe, he would like to restart them. However, because no details have been revealed, people and local governments around the plants are skeptical about their safety, even if the national government declares them safe. Meanwhile, Japan is still exporting nuclear technologies to countries like Turkey and Vietnam. Also, Toshiba is working at one of the US nuclear power plant construction sites, in south Texas (South Texas project).

Although I speak and read Japanese and can collect pretty detailed information about what’s happening in Japan, I am not sure where Japan is going with its energy policy, including what to do with nukes there. Another factor that may make prediction difficult is that the current administration and the ruling party (the president of the ruling party is usually elected prime minister, similar to the UK system), may lose their power, as the rumor of an imminent general election is spreading. The current administration and the ruling party are both losing support. To win the election, the ruling party may switch prime minsters. Or they may lose the election and lose power altogether. If so, the new administration might devise a completely different policy.

That is why I say Japan is mysterious.